Suicide in England in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Early Figures from Real Time Surveillance

Background: There are concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to an increase in suicide. The coronial system in England is not suitable for close monitoring of suicide because of the frequent gap of several months before inquests are held.  Methods: We used data from established systems of real time surveillance (RTS) of suspected suicides, in areas covering a total population of around 13 million, to examine for any increase after the first national lockdown in England.  Outcomes: The average monthly number of suicides in the months before lockdown, January-March 2020, was 125·7, compared to 121·3 in April-October 2020 (-4%; 95% CI -19% to 13%, p=0·59). Incidence rate ratios did not rise significantly in individual months after lockdown began and were not raised during the 2-month lockdown period April-May 2020 or the 5-month period after the easing of lockdown, June-October 2020 (IRR: 1·00 [0·8-1·25] and 0·94 [0·81-1·08]). Comparison of the suicide rates after lockdown in 2020 for the same months in selected areas in 2019 showed no difference.  Interpretation: We did not find a rise in suicide in England in the months after the first national lockdown began in 2020, despite evidence of greater distress. However, a number of caveats should be noted. These are early figures and may change. Any effect of the pandemic may vary by population group or geographical area. The use of RTS in this way is new and further development is needed before it can provide full national data.  Funding: The study was carried out as part of the role of the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health in supporting suicide prevention in England, funded by NHS England/NHS Improvement. Declaration of Interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf and declare: LA chairs the National Suicide Prevention Strategy Advisory Group (NSPSAG) at the Department of Health and Social Care in England; NK is a member of the Group, chaired the guideline development group for the 2012 National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines on the longer-term management of self-harm, currently chairs the guideline development group for the NICE depression in adults’ guidelines, is currently the topic advisor on the new NICE guideline on self-harm, and reports grants from the Department of Health and Social Care, National Institute of Health Research and NICE. All authors work with NHS England on the National Quality Improvement initiatives for suicide and self-harm. LA, NK, and PT report grants from the Health Quality Improvement Partnership.