Unconditional Cash-Based Assistance to the Poor: What Do At-Scale Programs Achieve?

We study the effects of large, temporary income changes on consumption patterns, food insecurity, livelihood coping strategies, child well-being, and health among Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that an unconditional cash transfer program (USD 2,100) and a food voucher program (USD 1,620) increase contemporaneous expenditure by 21% and 10%, respectively, with transfers spent on basic needs of rent, food, and energy. Both programs generate immediate, positive effects on child well-being, food security, and livelihood coping strategies. Surprisingly, we find no evidence that any program effects persist even at six months after transfers end. Although cash savings and the stock of durable goods increase while receiving assistance, households liquidate and spend these assets during or soon after the beneficiary period. Effects are similar for new and continuing beneficiaries, suggesting that the length of assistance cycles does not increase consumption smoothing. These findings are consistent with a highly volatile economic environment in which large asset transfers may be unable to yield sustained improvements in well-being.