Transmission Dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Background: Three sub-types of coronavirus have led to pandemics: Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and 2019 coronavirus disease ( COVID-19 ). This study aimed to investigate the transmissibility of MERS and compare it to SARS and COVID-19. Methods: The Susceptible-Exposed -Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered-Death (SEAIRD) model and the (Person)Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered-Death - (Host)Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Recovered (S1E1A1I1R1D1-S2E2A2R2) model was developed to fit the reported data obtained from the World Health Organization and calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) to evaluate the transmissibility of MERS. Findings: As for MERS in Republic of South Korea (RSK) , there is mainly ‘Person-to-Person’ transmission in healthcare settings, while in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), in addition to ‘Person-to-Person’ transmission, there is also ‘Host-to-Person’ transmission in some certain scenarios, where camel is considered as the Host. The results of our model show that the mean value of R0 was 8.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0–28.02) for MERS in RSK. The R0 of MERS for ‘Person-to-Person’ and ‘Camel-to-Camel’ transmission was 1.15 (95% CI: 0.86–1.44) and 1.02 in KSA, respectively. Interpretation: The transmissibility of MERS in RSK in 2015 was higher than those of SARS in 2003 and COVID-19 in 2019; however, the transmissibility of MERS in KSA was lower than that of above three diseases. R 0 of SARS was relatively stable, while MERS was more volatile that 2015 RSK epidemic was much higher than the Middle East region. Therefore, we should not only pay attention to the stability of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in one country or region but also be wary of the variability of transmissibility, such as that observed for MERS-CoV, which may further increase the risk of another pandemic. Funding Statement: This study was supported by Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province (No: 2020Y0002) and Emergency Response Program of Xiamen City for prevention and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 (No: 3502Z2020YJ03). Declaration of Interest: No conflicts of interest