Determinants of the Number of Deaths from COVID-19: Differences between Low-Income and High-Income Countries in the Initial Stages of the Pandemic

We study the factors that affect the number of coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths among low-income and high-income countries. Low-income countries report a significantly lower average number of deaths at 20 and 40 days post the first five deaths compared to high-income countries. We focus on factors that affect either the speed of transmission from susceptible to infected or the probability that an infected person dies. We then use the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to examine the sources of the differences in the average number of deaths between the two groups. We show that community mobility and the easiness of carrying the virus from one place to another, measured with the number of international arrivals, are significant factors affecting the number of deaths, while the governability of the population and life expectancy are only significant in high-income countries. Higher health expenditure and lower death rates are associated with more deaths in low-income countries. The differences in the number of deaths between the two groups can be linked to differences in the transportation infrastructure (number of arrivals), the shadow economy and life expectancy. Our study shows that mobility measures taken by individuals to limit the spread of the virus are important to prevent deaths in both high- and low-income countries. Additionally, our results suggest low-income countries with weak health institutions underestimate the number of deaths from COVID-19, compared to high-income countries. The underestimation of COVID-19 deaths could be affecting a great number of people in poverty in low-income economies.