Prognostic Predictors For COVID-19 in Daily Clinical Practice in Japan: a Propensity Score-Matched Case-Control Study

Introduction: Blood tests and computed tomography (CT) findings at diagnosis are widely used in daily clinical practice and can offer useful prognostic factors for coronavirus disease 2019.Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 66 patients who underwent a blood test and CT between January 1 and May 31, 2020, and performed a propensity score-matched case-control study. Cases and controls were a severe respiratory failure group (non-rebreather mask, nasal high-flow, positive-pressure ventilation) and a non-severe respiratory failure group, matched at a ratio of 1:3 by propensity scores constructed by age, sex, and medical history. We compared groups for maximum body temperature up to diagnosis, laboratory findings, and CT findings in the matched cohort. Two-tailed P-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant.Results: Nine cases and 27 controls were included in the matched cohort. Significant differences were seen in maximum body temperature up to diagnosis (p=0.0043), the number of shaded lobes (p=0.0434), amount of ground-glass opacity (GGO) in the total lung field (p=0.0071), amounts of GGO (p=0.0001), and consolidation (p=0.0036) in the upper lung field, and pleural effusion (p=0.0117).Conclusions: Fever and CT findings (such as GGO and consolidation) may be prognostic indicators that can be easily measured at diagnosis.