The Curse of Plenty: Early Childhood Roots of the Rise in Chronic Disease∗

The rising rate of chronic disease is a leading driver of the global disease burden. Yet its determinants are not fully understood. Exploiting the Green Revolution in India and its expansion in historically groundwater-rich districts, we examine how agricultural productivity growth can contribute to the rise in chronic, diet-related diseases. Specifically, we find that areas where the Green Revolution increased crop yields the most saw an increase in metabolic syndrome, an index based on diabetes, heart disease, and high blood pressure, and subsequent mortality, in men born after the introduction of high-yield crops. Consistent with a dietary mechanism, we find large significant increases in calories and fat consumed along with small, insignificant changes in protein consumption. We note that dietary and lifestyle changes can undermine the long-term health benefits of positive income shocks in early childhood. ∗Ramiro Burga provided superlative research assistance. We are grateful for helpful comments from Achyuta Adhvaryu, Doug Almond, Prashant Bharadwaj, Hoyt Bleakley, David Canning, Taryn Dinkelman, Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, Marc Rockmore, Tom Vogl, David Weil, Dean Yang, and seminar participants at Wellesley College, Fordham University, the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population’s Conference on Population, Poverty and Inequality, and the Liberal Arts Colleges Development Economics Conference. Shastry gratefully acknowledges funding from Wellesley College Faculty Research grants. †Department of Economics, University of Virginia, email: ssekhri@virginia.edu ‡Wellesley College, 106 Central Street, Department of Economics, Wellesley, MA 02481, email: gshastry@wellesley.edu