Lottery and bubble stocks and the cross-section of option-implied tail risks

The options smile provides forward-looking information about the risk at the center of the distribution (ATM-IV) and at the tails (Skew). We investigate the cross-sectional determinants of the options smile using indices that capture firm fundamental risks, heterogeneity in belief, lottery characteristics, and bubble characteristics. We find that at-the-money (ATM) volatility is explained mainly by historical risks and predicted future risks measured using accounting-based risk measures and firm characteristics. However, the cross-sectional variation in the skew is driven by risk premia and by buying and selling pressure, which is influenced by heterogeneity in belief and the underlying's lottery-like and bubble-like characteristics.