Simulation and Prediction of the Spatial Dynamics of Land Use Changes Modelling Through CLUE-S in the Southeastern Region of Bangladesh

Modelling in the changes of land use studies is essential towards investigating the regional land cover dynamics as well as for preparing sustainable land use planning and management. In considering the physiographic, climatic, and geospatial development factors, this study simulated and predicted the changes of land use over the southeastern region of Bangladesh integrated of non-spatially demand module and geospatially explicit distribution using CLUE-S model. Globally validated FROM-GLC land cover products of the year 2010, 2015, and 2017 were used as datasets. The simulated maps for 2015 and 2017 have been confirmed to be generally accurate with the actual land use using an error matrix and Kappa indices as of 62.38% (0.6101) and 71.64% (0.7106), respectively, to ensure model simulations success. However, the land-use scenarios between 2017 and 2025 were predicted assuming three modes of development as of existing trends, under forests protection, and of croplands protection. All three scenarios primarily predicted that urbanization, as well as built-up areas, would expand by 100%, 65.3%, and 34.2%, respectively in accumulated all other land-use types. This expansion is predicted as the leading land-use conversions in the study area and expected to an extensive loss of forest in hilly areas and water and croplands in the flat areas. The rate of uneven expansion might be controlled under strict forestland or cropland protection or as well inclusive implementations. The conversion trends of grasslands, wetlands, and others land use in the simulation processes were more subtle. Scientific information derived from simulations revealed the model approach is similarly suitable in formulating relevant land-use policies.