Do perceptions of economic well-being predict the onset of war and peace?

•We document a large variation in perceived economic well-being that cannot be explained by actual economic well-being.•In turn, perception of economic well-being may project effects onto behaviors, such as conflict participation, in a way that is separate from that of actual economic circumstance.•Perceived income inadequacy is associated with earlier war onset during periods of rebel recruitment, and with later peace onset, during the Nepalese Civil War.•Results are mainly driven by the effect of perceived deprivation among marginalised communities on rebel-initiated violence, and hold regardless of whether we account for actual economic circumstance.