Prediction and mathematical analysis of the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Bangladesh

In this study based on Bangladesh, a modified SIR model is produced and analysed for COVID-19. We have theoretically investigated the model along with numerical simulations. The reproduction number (R0) has been calculated by using the method of the next-generation matrix. Due to the basic reproduction number, we have analysed the local stability of the model for disease-free and endemic equilibria. We have investigated the sensitivity of the reproduction number to parameters and calculate the sensitivity indices to determine the dominance of the parameters. Furthermore, we simulate the system in MATLAB by using the fourth-order Runge–Kutta (RK4) method and validate the results using fourth order polynomial regression (John Hopkins Hospital (JHH), 2020). Finally, the numerical simulation depicts the clear picture of the upward, and the downward trend of the spread of this disease along with time in a particular place, and the parameters in the mathematical model indicate this change of intensity. This result represents, the effect of COVID-19 from Bangladesh’s perspective.