Wildfire economic impact assessment: an empirical model-based investigation for Greek agriculture

Within the last few decades, Greece has been through catastrophic wildfires with significant damages to agricultural areas, and considerable implications for the associated regional economy. The great number of wildfire occurrences annually is indicative of inefficiencies in the risk and mitigation management of wildfires. In the present manuscript, we focus on the selection of key variables to the cost assessment on agriculture. The econometric tool to derive the total cost determinants employed is the generalized log–gamma linear model, a special case of Generalized Linear Models. The cost assessment is one of the major issues for pre- and post-wildfire management. With the assistance of data derived by the Hellenic Agricultural Insurance Agency (ELGA), the Hellenic Statistic Authority (ELSTAT), and the Fire Service of Greece, we estimated the total cost of a wildfire. The cost calculation was based on a methodology developed by (Stougiannidou D, Zafeiriou E, Raftoyannis Y (2020) Forest Fires in Greece and Their Economic Impacts on Agriculture. KnE Social Sciences, pp.54–70). The research involved 54 wildfires within the time period 2004–2006 that affected coastal agricultural land in Greece. The model estimation has validated the statistical significance of the following independent variables of the model; the areas (arable and forests), the water resources, and the fire hazard category on the date of the fire. The findings provide policymakers an effective tool to limit the detrimental effects, in economic terms, of wildfires in agricultural lands. More specifically, the rectified use of aerial means, the well-educated and efficient employees, as well as advanced infrastructure in terms of water tanks and wildfires zones construction can be a few of the measures aiming at the limitation of the wildfires occurrence and their adequate management aiming at the restriction of their destructive economic effects in rural regions. Implementing the present model for territories with varying land structure, climate conditions, and cultivation types in Greece could be a subject of further research.