Short coupling interval with high burden of atrial ectopy predicts recurrence after atrial fibrillation ablation

Atrial ectopy (AE) with a short coupling interval (S-AE) causes atrial fibrillation (AF). A higher burden of AE is associated with recurrence after AF ablation. However, a few reports have evaluated the prognostic impact of both AE burden and S-AE after the acute phase of ablation. This study aimed to assess the characteristics of AE beyond the blanking period in predicting the recurrence. We retrospectively analyzed 173 patients who underwent first catheter ablation for AF and 24-h Holter recording following a 3-month blanking period. AE was defined as a narrow QRS complex occurring < 75% earlier than the prior reference R–R interval. We investigated the relationship between the AE’s characteristics in Holter recordings and atrial arrhythmia recurrence. Forty-two patients (24%) had a recurrence during a median 488-day follow-up. Patients with S-AE (minimum coupling interval ratio of AE ≤ 45%) had a higher recurrence rate than those without S-AE (44.9% vs. 16.1%, p < 0.001). Moreover, patients with AE ≥ 241/day exhibited a significantly higher recurrence rate than those with AE < 241/day (44.3% vs. 10.7%, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, S-AE with a higher AE burden was an independent predictor of recurrence (hazard ratio 5.82, 95% confidence interval: 2.64–12.82, p < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with S-AE and a higher AE burden had the worst prognosis for recurrence ( p < 0.001). The combination of a higher AE burden with S-AE could be an efficient predictor of recurrence. These results can help to develop follow-up strategies after AF ablation.