The coronal plane maximum diameter of deep intracerebral hemorrhage predicts functional outcome more accurately than hematoma volume

Background Among prognostic imaging variables, the hematoma volume on admission computed tomography (CT) has long been considered the strongest predictor of outcome and mortality in intracerebral hemorrhage. Aims To examine whether different features of hematoma shape are associated with functional outcome in deep intracerebral hemorrhage. Methods We analyzed 790 patients from the ATACH-2 trial, and 14 shape features were quantified. We calculated Spearman's Rho to assess the correlation between shape features and three-month modified Rankin scale (mRS) score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to quantify the association between shape features and poor outcome defined as mRS>2 as well as mRS > 3. Results Among 14 shape features, the maximum intracerebral hemorrhage diameter in the coronal plane was the strongest predictor of functional outcome, with a maximum coronal diameter >similar to 3.5 cm indicating higher three-month mRS scores. The maximum coronal diameter versus hematoma volume yielded a Rho of 0.40 versus 0.35 (p = 0.006), an AUC([mRS>2]) of 0.71 versus 0.68 (p = 0.004), and an AUC([mRS>3]) of 0.71 versus 0.69 (p = 0.029). In multiple regression analysis adjusted for known outcome predictors, the maximum coronal diameter was independently associated with three-month mRS (p < 0.001). Conclusions A coronal-plane maximum diameter measurement offers greater prognostic value in deep intracerebral hemorrhage than hematoma volume. This simple shape metric may expedite assessment of admission head CTs, offer a potential biomarker for hematoma size eligibility criteria in clinical trials, and may substitute volume in prognostic intracerebral hemorrhage scoring systems.