The Association of California's Proposition 56 Tobacco Tax Increase With Smoking Behavior Across Racial and Ethnic Groups and by Income

Introduction: On April 1, 2017, California Proposition 56 (Prop 56) was implemented, increasing the excise tax on cigarettes by $2/pack. This study compares the association of Prop 56 with smoking prevalence and smoking intensity across racial/ethnic groups, further examining distinctions across income subgroups within each racial/ethnic group. Aims and Methods: The study used pooled cross-sectional data from the 2012-2018 California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We examined two outcomes: current smoking prevalence and smoking intensity conditional on current smoking. A two-part econometric model was used to estimate the association of Prop 56 with smoking prevalence and intensity using multiple logistic regression and multiple linear regression, respectively. The two-part model was run separately for all adults (full sample) and each racial/ethnic group. Within each racial/ethnic group, we ran stratified analyses by income subgroups. Results: The results indicated that Prop 56 was negatively associated with smoking prevalence among full sample, Hispanic, White, and African American adults and negatively associated with smoking intensity among full sample and White smokers. Stratified analyses by race/ethnicity and income showed that Prop 56 was negatively associated with smoking prevalence among low-income full sample and White adults and among middle-income smokers in the full, Hispanic, White, African American, and Asian samples. Prop 56 was negatively associated with smoking intensity among middle-income Hispanic and high-income White smokers.The association between Prop 56 and smoking intensity was positive among high-income African American smokers. Conclusion: Prop 56 was associated with a reduction in smoking prevalence across multiple racial/ethnic groups, particularly within the low- and middle-income subgroups.