Emtricitabine triphosphate in dried blood spots predicts future viremia in persons with HIV and identifies mismatch with self-reported adherence

Objective: Emtricitabine triphosphate (FTC-TP) in dried blood spots (DBS), a measure of short-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, is associated with viral suppression in persons with HIV (PWH). However, its ability to predict future viremia remains unknown. Design: Prospective, observational cohort (up to three visits in 48 weeks). Methods: PWH receiving TDF/FTC-based ART had DBS and HIV viral load obtained at routine clinical visits. FTC-TP in DBS was dichotomized into quantifiable vs. below the limit of quantification (BLQ). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of future viremia (>= 20 copies/ml at next study visit) was estimated according to FTC-TP at the current visit. To assess for possible interactions, additional models adjusted for tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) in DBS and 3-day self-reported adherence. Results: Data from 433 PWH (677 paired DBS/HIV viral load samples) were analyzed. The aOR [95% confidence interval (CI)] for future viremia for BLQ vs. quantifiable FTC-TP was 3.4 (1.8--6.5; P = 0.0002). This diminished after adjusting for TFV-DP [aOR 1.9 (0.9--4.1); P = 0.090]. Among PWH reporting 100% 3-day adherence, the odds of future viremia were 6.0 times higher [(1.8--20.3); P = 0.001] when FTC-TP was BLQ vs. quantifiable. Among participants (n = 75) reporting less than 100% adherence, BLQ FTC-TP in DBS was not predictive of future viremia [aOR 1.3 (0.4--4.6); P = 0.96]. Conclusion: Nonquantifiable FTC-TP in DBS predicts future viremia and is particularly informative in PWH reporting perfect adherence. As point-of-care adherence measures become available, mismatches between objective and subjective measures, such as FTC-TP in DBS and self-report, could help clinicians identify individuals at an increased risk of future viremia.