The evaluation of Kain-Fritsch scheme in tropical cyclone simulation

lkj & bl v/;;u esa 25&30 vDrwcj 1999 rd dh vof/k esa mM+hlk esa vk, egkpØokrksa ds ewY;kadu dk izfr:i.k djus ds fy, dSu fÝ’k ds diklh izkpyhdj.k ;kstuk ds lkFk ,u- lh- ,- vkj- ,e- ,e- 5 dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA 25 vDrwcj 1999 ds 0000 ;w Vh lh ij 90] 30 vkSj 10 fd-eh- ds f}iFkh vk/kkfjr {kSfrt iz{ks=ksa ¼Mksesu½ okys ,u- lh- ,- vkj- ,e- ,e- 5 dks 5 fnu dh vof/k ds fy, lesfdr fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u ds fy, izkjfEHkd vkSj ifjlhek dh fLFkfr;ksa dks ,d va’k ds varjky ij miyC/k gq, ,u- lh- bZ- ih- ,Q- ,u- ,y- fo’ys"k.k vk¡dM+ksa ls fy;k x;k gSA ;g izfr:fir fun’kZ 954 gSDVkikLdy ij izkIr fd, x, leqnz ry ds e/; nkc vkSj 58 feuV izfr lSdaM dh vf/kdre iouksa ds lkFk mM+hlk esa vk, egkpØokr dh fodklkRed fLFkfr;ksa dks izLrqr djrk gSA bl fun’kZ ls vfuok;Z vfHky{k.kksa uker% m".k ØksM] dsanz vkSj dsanz fHkfRr izfr:i.k] gjhdsu ØksM iouksa dks izkIr fd;k x;k gSA ;g fun’kZ pØokr ds LFky Hkkx esa izos’k djus ds mijkar ml LFky ds fudV 40 ls-eh- izfrfnu dh vf/kdre o"kkZ dk iwokZuqeku yxk ldrk gS A ;g fun’kZ 24 ?kaVksa es 120 fd-eh- =qfV;ksa vkSj 120 ?kaVksa esa 0 fd-eh- dh deh ds lkFk egkpØokr ds iFk dk ,dne lgh vkdyu izLrqr djrk gSA In this study NCAR MM5 with the cumulus parameterization scheme of Kain-Fritsch is used to simulate the evaluation of Orissa Super Cyclone for the period 25-30 October 1999. The NCAR MM5 with two-way nested horizontal domains of 90, 30 and 10 km are integrated for five days starting from 0000 UTC of 25 October, 1999. The initial and boundary conditions for this study have been taken from NCEP FNL analysis data available at 1° resolution. The model simulation produces the development of the Orissa Super Cyclone with attained central sea level pressure of 954 hPa and maximum wind of 58 msec-1. The essential characteristics such as warm core, eye and eye-wall simulation, hurricane core winds were obtained by the model. The model could predict a maximum rainfall of 40 cm/day near the landfall point. The model produces a very good estimate of track with errors of 120 km at 24 hours and decreasing to 0 km at 120 hours.