The Impact of Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupling on the Near-Surface Wind Speed in Forecasts of Extratropical Cyclones

urate modelling of air–sea surface exchanges is crucial for reliable extreme surface wind-speed forecasts. While atmosphere-only weather forecast models represent ocean and wave effects through sea-state independent parametrizations, coupled multi-model systems capture sea-state dynamics by integrating feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean and wave model components. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of extreme surface wind speeds to air–sea exchanges at the kilometre scale using coupled and uncoupled configurations of the Met Office’s UK Regional Coupled Environmental Prediction system. The case period includes the passage of extra-tropical cyclones Helen, Ali, and Bronagh, which brought maximum gusts of 36 m s ^-1 over the UK. Compared with the atmosphere-only results, coupling to the ocean decreases the domain-average sea-surface temperature by up to 0.5 K. Inclusion of coupling to waves reduce the 98th percentile 10-m wind speed by up to 2 m s ^-1 as young, growing wind waves reduce the wind speed by increasing the sea-surface aerodynamic roughness. Impacts on gusts are more modest, with local reductions of up to 1 m s ^-1 , due to enhanced boundary-layer turbulence which partially offsets air–sea momentum transfer. Using a new drag parametrization based on the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment 4.0 parametrization, with a cap on the neutral drag coefficient and reduction for wind speeds exceeding 27 m s ^-1 , the atmosphere-only model achieves equivalent impacts on 10-m wind speeds and gusts as from coupling to waves. Overall, the new drag parametrization achieves the same 20