Do patron bans act as a deterrent to future anti-social offending? An analysis of banning and offending data from Victoria, Australia

Police-imposed patron bans seek to reduce alcohol-related harm in and around licensed premises. This study examined the offending records of people who received bans and explored whether anti-social offences reduced after the imposition of a police-imposed ban. A de-identified dataset was obtained from Victoria Police, comprising persons who received police-imposed bans in one Australian city between 2010 and 2017. Analyses were conducted to examine charging histories and offence types before and after receipt of the ban. Of those who received bans, 70.7% had recorded offences before the ban. The median number of charges before and after receiving a ban were not significantly different with respect to both anti-social behaviours and other behaviours. However, when examining short term effects (two years prior and post receiving a ban), there was a significant increase in anti-social offending, specifically public order offences (d = 0.67), after receiving a ban compared to before. Most of the ban recipients had an established record of anti-social behaviours. As a short-term sanction which limits access to specific locations, Victoria's police-imposed bans do not appear to deter recipients from repeat offending or change already established patterns of anti-social behaviours. Consideration should be given to extending the permissible length of bans and to ensuring more effective enforcement. In addition, alternative interventions or diversions for those with a record of anti-social offending, which could be initiated on-the-spot, may be more effective in reducing undesirable behaviours in and around licensed premises.