Prognostic Value of Apparent Diffusion Coefficient in Oropharyngeal Carcinoma

Purpose To investigate clinical and radiological factors predicting worse outcome after (chemo)radiotherapy ([C]RT) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) with a focus on apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC). Methods This retrospective study included 67 OPSCC patients, treated with (C)RT with curative intent and diagnosed during 2013–2017. Human papilloma virus (HPV) association was detected with p16 immunohistochemistry. Of all 67 tumors, 55 were p16 positive, 9 were p16 negative, and in 3 the p16 status was unknown. Median follow-up time was 38 months. We analyzed pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for factors predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and locoregional recurrence (LRR), including primary tumor volume and the largest metastasis. Crude and p16-adjusted hazard ratios were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards model. Interobserver agreement was evaluated. Results Disease recurred in 13 (19.4%) patients. High ADC predicted poor DFS, but not when the analysis was adjusted for p16. A break in RT (hazard ratio, HR = 3.972, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.445–10.917, p = 0.007) and larger metastasis volume (HR = 1.041, 95% CI 1.007–1.077, p = 0.019) were associated with worse DFS. A primary tumor larger than 7 cm 3 was associated with increased LRR rate (HR = 4.861, 1.042–22.667, p = 0.044). Among p16-positive tumors, mean ADC was lower in grade 3 tumors compared to lower grade tumors (0.736 vs. 0.883; p = 0.003). Conclusion Low tumor ADC seems to be related to p16 positivity and therefore should not be used independently to evaluate disease prognosis or to choose patients for treatment deintensification.