Evidence For Ecosystem-Level Trophic Cascade Effects Involving Gulf Menhaden (Brevoortia Patronus) Triggered By The Deepwater Horizon Blowout

Unprecedented recruitment of Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia patronus) followed the 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout (DWH). The foregone consumption of Gulf menhaden, after their many predator species were killed by oiling, increased competition among menhaden for food, resulting in poor physiological conditions and low lipid content during 2011 and 2012. Menhaden sampled for length and weight measurements, beginning in 2011, exhibited the poorest condition around Barataria Bay, west of the Mississippi River, where recruitment of the 2010 year class was highest. Trophodynamic comparisons indicate that similar to 20% of net primary production flowed through Gulf menhaden prior to the DWH, increasing to similar to 38% in 2011 and similar to 27% in 2012, confirming the dominant role of Gulf menhaden in their food web. Hyperabundant Gulf menhaden likely suppressed populations of their zooplankton prey, suggesting a trophic cascade triggered by increased menhaden recruitment. Additionally, low-lipid menhaden likely became "junk food" for predators, further propagating adverse effects. We posit that food web analyses based on inappropriate spatial scales for dominant species, or solely on biomass, provide insufficient indication of the ecosystem consequences of oiling injury. Including such cascading and associated indirect effects in damage assessment models will enhance the ability to anticipate and estimate ecosystem damage from, and provide recovery guidance for, major oil spills.