The impact of urbanization and aging on food security in developing countries: The view from Northwest China

Different from the urbanization and aging population challenges experienced by developed countries, developing countries face huge impacts of these challenges on food security. Previous studies on the effects of urbanization and an aging population in developing countries on food security were mostly qualitative discussions and focused on individual aspects of grain production or consumption. In this paper, we combine rural household survey data with statistical data to comprehensively assess and reveal the impact of these two factors on food security in developing countries. Their impact on food security has both negative and positive aspects. Taking Northwest China as an example, the grain yield of every family will increase by 26.0 and −9.4 kg (P < 0.05) for every 1% increase of these two factors. For every 1% increase in urban and elderly population, regional grain consumption will increase by 0.07% and −0.09%, respectively. The negative impact of urbanization on the agricultural labor force and farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain is gradually increasing. Along with urbanization, food consumption of urban and elderly populations increased by 1.3 and 0.5 times, respectively, from 2000 to 2016. Coupled with the preference of urban residents for animal-based food products (the average annual consumption growth rate is 2.7%), the per capita food demand continues to increase, which brings about food security challenges. However, the improvement of these two factors promotes the development of agricultural mechanization and water-saving technology. This not only addresses the negative impact of labor shortage in grain production, but also reduces the grain water footprint and promotes its sustainable development. Based on the above research results, this paper proposes to use the economic benefits of urbanization to feedback to rural areas: strengthen technical guidance, train farmers and invest in machinery and equipment to promote the development of smart agriculture, and increase and refine agricultural subsidy policies to ensure the sustainable development of food production. The study can serve as a reference for other developing countries and ultimately contribute to ensuring global food security.