The Snap, Crackle And Pop Of Solar Flares Explained
BRAZILIAN JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS(2021)
摘要
The irregular fluctuations of solar flare emissions, as determined from terrestrial neutron monitors, remains poorly understood. These records empirically revealed a temporally-related variance to mean power law, 1/f noise and a non-Gaussian distribution, all features indicative of self-organized criticality, a theory of how derministic dynamical systems can spontaneously evolve to unstable states that express erratic changes. The non-Gaussian distribution found here approximated a Tweedie compound Poisson exponential dispersion model, a statistical distribution characterized by a variance to mean power law that itself can imply 1/f noise. Tweedie exponential dispersion models serve a primary role in statistical theory as foci for weak convergence for a wide range of random distributions, a role which supports an alternative conjecture to explain the solar flare fluctuations as being based on random processes rather than a deterministic system.
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关键词
Solar cosmic rays, emergent property, Taylor's power law, multifractals, weak convergence
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