Agent-Based Campus Novel Coronavirus Infection and Control Simulation

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to its extremely high infectivity, has been spreading rapidly around the world and bringing huge influence to socioeconomic development and people’s daily life. Taking for example the virus transmission that may occur after college students return to school, we analyze the quantitative influence of the key factors on the virus spread, including crowd density and self-protection. One Campus Virus Infection and Control Simulation (CVICS) model of the novel coronavirus is proposed in this article, fully considering the characteristics of repeated contact and strong mobility of crowd in the closed environment. Specifically, we build an agent-based infection model, introduce the mean field theory to calculate the probability of virus transmission, and microsimulate the daily prevalence of infection among individuals. The experimental results show that the proposed model in this article efficiently simulates how the virus spreads in the dense crowd in frequent contact under a closed environment. Furthermore, preventive and control measures, such as self-protection, crowd decentralization, and isolation during the epidemic, can effectively delay the arrival of infection peak, reduce the prevalence, and, finally, lower the risk of COVID-19 transmission after the students return to school.