Pulmonary Tuberculosis Incidence, Trends And Predictions In Monastir, Tunisia (2000-2030)

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be one of the infectious diseases with the highest morbidity worldwide. The lung is the most commonly involved organ, but lesions can occur in other body systems. This study aimed to describe incidence and trends of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) over a period of 18 years in Monastir and to estimate predictions for 2030. Methods We carried out an observational study from 2000 to 2017. Data were collected by the regional direction of primary health care. Incidence was estimated by the crude incidence rate (CIR) and the age standardized rate (ASR). Poisson regression model was used to calculate the slope 'b' in order to describe trends and was performed to estimate incidence projection for 2030. Data were verified and analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 software. Results A total of 997 patients were recorded with 486 cases of PTB (48.95%). Sex ratio was 2.85. The median age was 40.5 [IQR 28-56] years old. PTB ASR was 5.71/100,000 inhabitants (inh). CIR was the highest among the eldest cohort aged more than 60 years (12.65/100,000 inh) and the lowest among youth aged less than 19 years (1.01/100,000 inh). We established a negative trend of PTB over 18 years (b= -0.032; p < 10-4) in all age cohorts. PTB would be decreasing by 2030 with an estimate incidence rate of 1.83/100,000 inh. Conclusions The decline of PTB may be a sign of TB control program effectiveness in Monastir. Thus, the challenges for the future are to maintain PTB towards decreasing. Key messages Our study highlighted the impact of TB control strategies in Tunisia. Our findings play a key role in estimating whether the WHO’s End TB strategy targets can be achieved by 2030.