Strict Equal Odds: A Useful Reference To Study The Relationship Between Quality And Quantity

A thorough understanding of the relationship between quality and quantity of creative productions is critically important for creativity researchers and practitioners. The current study examines the equal odds baseline as a simple model to describe the quality-quantity relationship. Among other predictions, the equal odds baseline posits the presence of individual differences in hit ratios. In this work, the expected residual variance under the more constrained assumption that hit ratios is constant across creators is derived and implemented in a test against the observed residual variance. In the case that the equal odds baseline holds for a given dataset, this test can be used to examine the presence of individual differences in hit ratios within summary data from previously published studies. It is further shown that a significantly smaller observed residual variance as compared to the expected residual variance under strict equal odds provides strong evidence against the equal odds baseline. The outlined approach extends the equal odds baseline and is empirically illustrated with reported data from primary studies on divergent thinking, brainstorming research, and scientific productivity. The presented findings highlight the strong heuristic value of the equal odds baseline.