Numerical modelling of birch pollen dispersion in Canada

Simulating allergenic tree pollen is important to protect sensitive population and to support bioaerosols monitoring effort. Using the regional air quality model GEM-MACH, a simulation was conducted adopting two new main hypotheses: 1) the use of vertical correlation concept to force the vertical dispersion (a method normally used in tracer data assimilation) and, 2) the use of a puff instead of a continuous pollen release. The simulation was compared with pollen observations in Montreal and with the corresponding statistical forecasts (issued daily by the Weather Network) at several locations in the province of Quebec and elsewhere. The comparison with the simulation was found satisfactory (outperform forecasts based on persistence or pollen calendar and is also superior to numerical simulation of tree pollen done elsewhere in North America). Simulation shows that, for the 2012 pollen season, the majority (88%) of the Betula pollen measured in Montreal originated from the Laurentides region. Another result of scientific importance obtained here is that Betula pollen episodes (observed or simulated birch pollen) in Montreal occur only when the average daily temperature is in the range of 10° to 18 °C. This research is considered as a first step in forecasting bioaerosols in Canada within an air quality model.