An integrated assessment for achieving the 2°C target pathway in China by 2030

Abstract China submitted the Greenhouse gas emission reduction target in the form of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to the Paris Agreement. To reduce the negative impact of global warming, a tighter target is needed, such as the 2-degree target. This study investigated how China could reach its emissions peak and decarbonize its economy through different key countermeasures in various sectors in line with the NDC and 2 °C targets by 2030. A dynamic CGE model is used to develop ten scenarios that contain two dimensions consisting of two stringency levels of carbon emission limitation and the availability of different low-carbon options. We found that in the baseline scenario, China’s total CO2 emissions in 2030 would reach 14.7 Gt. To meet China’s NDC target, it is essential to develop non-fossil fuel energy, restrict the over-expansion of energy-intensive industries and improve end-use efficiency. Meanwhile, the global 2 °C target poses higher requirements for China to develop various non-fossil technologies both in electricity production and demand sectors, and vigorously promote low-carbon consumption pattern. Furthermore, we estimated the economic impacts and found that if low-carbon measures are adopted properly, the mitigation cost in 2030 could decline by 92 and 226 USD/ton-CO2 under the NDC target and 2 °C target, respectively. Accordingly, GDP loss could fall from 3.8% to barely 0.004% under the NDC target, and from 11.6% to 1.6% under the 2 °C target. The welfare will almost not be affected significantly under all scenarios. Moreover, carbon reduction will also bring co-benefits on the air pollution improvement in China.