Prediction of Adverse Outcomes Within 90 Days of Surgery in a Heterogeneous Orthopedic Surgery Population

Introduction: The LACE+ index has been shown to predict readmissions; however, LACE+ has not been validated for extended postoperative outcomes in an orthopedic surgery population. The purpose of this study is to examine whether LACE+ scores predict unplanned readmissions and adverse outcomes following orthopedic surgery. Use of the LACE1 index to proactively identify at-risk patients may enable actions to reduce preventable readmissions. Methods: LACE+ scores were retrospectively calculated at the time of discharge for all consecutive orthopedic surgery patients (n = 18,893) at a multicenter health system over 3 years (2016-2018). Coarsened exact matching was used to match patients based on characteristics not assessed in the LACE+ index. Outcome differences between matched patients in different LACE quartiles (i.e. Q4 vs. Q3, Q2, and Q1) were analyzed. Results: Higher LACE+ scores significantly predicted readmission and emergency department visits within 90 days of discharge and for 30-90 days after discharge for all studied quartiles. Higher LACE+ scores also significantly predicted reoperations, but only between Q4 and Q3 quartiles. Conclusions: The results suggest that the LACE+ risk-prediction tool may accurately predict patients with a high likelihood of adverse outcomes after a broad array of orthopedic procedures.