Trends Of Dementia Among Community-Dwelling Adults In Ontario, Canada, 2010-2015

Background: There are increasing numbers of people living with dementia (PLWD) and most reside in community settings. Characterizing the number of individuals affected with dementia and their transitions are important to understand in order to plan for their healthcare needs. Using administrative health data in Ontario, Canada, we examined recent trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia among the community-dwelling population, described their characteristics, and investigated admissions to long-term care (LTC) and overall survival. Methods: Using a validated case ascertainment algorithm, we performed a population-based retrospective cohort study of community-dwelling PLWD aged 40-105 years old between 2010 and 2015. We assessed crude and age- and sex-adjusted prevalence and incidence, cohort characteristics, and time to LTC admission and survival. Results: Between 2010 and 2015, the adjusted community prevalence increased by 9.5% (p < 0.001), while the incidence decreased by 15.8% (p < 0.001). Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics remained similar over time, while the prevalence of comorbidities increased significantly from 2010 to 2015. There was no difference in the time to LTC admission for individuals diagnosed in 2014 when compared to 2010 (p = 0.06). A lower risk of 2-year mortality was observed for individuals diagnosed in 2015 compared to 2010 (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.97, p < 0.001). Conclusion: There was an increase in the prevalence of dementia despite decreasing incidence among community-dwelling PLWD. Lower rates of mortality indicate that PLWD are surviving longer following diagnosis. Adequate resources and planning are required to support this growing population, considering the changing population size and characteristics.