Estimating Incumbency Advantages in African Politics : Regression discontinuity evidence from Zambian parliamentary and local government elections

Are incumbents disproportionately advantaged at the polls relative to non-incumbents in Africa’s emerging democracies? The prevailing wisdom characterises African politics as predominantly ‘neopatrimonial’ and ‘semi-authoritarian’ in which incumbents systematically manipulate the electoral process to their own advantage. In stark contrast to this perspective, this study finds significant incumbency dis-advantages in Zambia’s local government elections using a regression discontinuity approach, as well as no discernible incumbency advantages at the parliamentary level over the period 1991-2011. Furthermore, the strength of these disadvantages appear to be closely associated with higher levels of voter information, poorer economic conditions, and a structural shift in party competition. These results effectively expand the incumbency effects literature into the African context and offer an important contrast to the conventional wisdom of African politics.