Response of the Japanese flying squid ( Todarodes pacificus ) in the Japan Sea to future climate warming scenarios

The Japanese flying squid ( Todarodes pacificus ) is an important fishery resource in East Asia, including Japan, China, and Korea. Recent studies have suggested that it exhibits significant interannual variation with a close relationship with environmental variables, among which water temperature has an apparent influence on its spawning, hatching, and growth. Therefore, we need to understand how the Japanese flying squid in the Japan Sea (JS) will be affected by global warming. Based on particle tracking methods, we simulated migration and individual growth of Japanese flying squid from spawning to juveniles (182 days) in six cases: one for high-level catch years (1960–1966), one for low-level catch years (2008–2014), and four for the future, including two for 50 years (2056–2062) and two for 100 years from now (2104–2110) under the warming scenario of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The simulations showed that the number of squid increased with warming. The main reason for the increase was the warming of the JS, which increased the survival rate of autumn- and winter-spawning cohorts. In addition, the model also demonstrated the potential effects of warming on the physiological process of the early life stage of the Japanese flying squid.