Modeling the sensitivity of strategic plans to risks and uncertainties in forest management

Forest operations are associated with products of a biological source and long-term plans. This makes forest management plans affected by market and environmental uncertainties, which can cause differences between the strategic and operational plans. Risks related to disease spread, adverse weather, timber demand, and available capital can cause a reduction in planted areas. It is necessary that forest management plans aim to optimize production and reduce the effects of restrict planting. In this work, a linear programming model was created for long-term forests planning including a variable to restrict planting area. Prescriptions were defined for 6-, 7- and 8-year rotation considering planting or coppicing, creating 60 scenarios varying intensity, period and time of reductions in the planted areas. All scenarios were evaluated by the NPV at the end of the planning horizon. The results showed that the NPV decreased when the planted area was reduced and when the reductions took place at the beginning of the planning horizon. The differences were between 24.1 and 0.07% in relation to the conventional scenario (no planting restriction). The differences were not higher because prescriptions changed from planting to coppice. Key words: Linear programming, forest planning, planting reduction.