Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow-dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035-2044) and 2090s (year 2085-2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways - from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid-century and four to eight weeks by late-century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.Research Impact Statement: The future streamflow and sediment load in snowfed mountainous watersheds show strong sensitivity to future climate change. Sediment concentrations exhibit a nonlinear relationship with streamflow.