Predictors of Mandatory Third Grade Retention From High-Stakes Test Performance for Low-Income, Ethnically Diverse Children

•Florida follows a test-based promotion policy for third graders.•We examined enforcement practices for this policy among a low-income, ethnically diverse sample of students.•Key findings determine the predictors of failing the high-stakes standardized test, and predictors of grade retention after failing.•Policy implications for test-based promotion policies are discussed.