Early prediction of treatment failure in severe community-acquired pneumonia: The PRoFeSs score

Purpose To identify a single/panel of biomarkers and to provide a point score that, after 48 h of treatment, could early predict treatment failure at fifth day of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) stay in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) patients. Materials and methods Single-center, prospective cohort study of 107 ICU patients with SCAP. Primary outcome included death or absence of improvement in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by ≥2 points within 5 days of treatment. Biomarkers were evaluated within 12 h of first antibiotic dose (D1) and 48 h after the first assessment (D3). Results A model based on Charlson's score and a panel of biomarkers (procalcitonin on D1 and D3, B-natriuretic peptide on D1, D-dimer and lactate on D3) had good discrimination for primary outcome in both derivation (AUC 0.82) and validation (AUC 0.76) samples and was well calibrated (X2 = 0.98; df = 1; p = .32). A point score system (PRoFeSs score) built on the estimates of regression coefficients presented good discrimination (AUC 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval 0.72–0.89) for primary outcome. Conclusions In SCAP, a combination of biomarkers measured at admission and 48 h later may early predict treatment failure. PRoFeSs score may recognize patients with poor short-term prognosis.