Preoperative predictors and a prediction score for perception of improvement after mesh prolapse surgery

Introduction and hypothesis Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery using a mesh has a complication rate of 26%, and an estimated 10% of those operated on do not consider it brings improvement. The objective of this study was to identify preoperative predictors of improvement after POP repair with mesh to develop a predictive score. Methods This is a secondary analysis of the randomized multicenter trial PROSPERE, which compared morbidity after prolapse repair with mesh according to the vaginal or laparoscopic approach. Improved women [PGI-I score at 1-year follow-up = 1 (much better) or 2 (better)] were compared with unimproved women. Two hundred fifty-five women were included to derive the prediction score based on multiple logistic regression. An internal validation by bootstrapping estimated the unbiased performance of the model. Results Criteria independently related to improvement were: (1) cystocele stage > II [OR: 2.93 95% CI (1.22–7.04), p = 0.015]; (2) preoperative expectation related to bulge symptom improvement [OR: 2.57 95% CI (1.07–6.04), p = 0.031] and (3) absence of chronic pelvic pain [OR: 4.55 95% CI (1.77–11.46), p = 0.001]. A score (scored from 0 to 11) was constructed from the aOR of the predictive model: the ROC-AUC of the score was 0.75, and a score ≥ 9 predicted a 97% chance of improvement (95% CI 92–99), with a specificity of 85% (95% CI 68–94). The ROC-AUC corrected for optimism by the bootstrap procedure was 0.70. Conclusions This score could be used by surgeons in preoperative counseling of women.