Structural Evolution of the UK Electricity System in a below 2°C World

We employ an electricity system model to determine the least-cost transition necessary to meet a given carbon dioxide removal (CDR) burden in the UK. The results show that, while sufficient in the medium term, a system dominated by intermittent renewable energy technologies (IRES) cannot deliver CDR at the scale required in a cost-effective manner. The marginal value of IRES for climate change mitigation diminishes with time, especially in the context of the Paris Agreement. Deeper decarbonization precipitates a resurgence of thermal generation from bioenergy and gas (with carbon capture and storage) and nuclear. Such a system is inherently centralized and will require maintenance of existing transmission and distribution infrastructure. Current policy direction, however, encourages the proliferation of renewables and decentralization of energy services. To avoid locking the power system into a future where it cannot meet climate change mitigation ambitions, policy must recognize and adequately incentivize the new technologies (CCS) and services (CDR) necessary.