Early sowing systems can boost Australian wheat yields despite recent climate change

Price surges in staple foods trigger civil unrest and conflict 1 . The food riots of 2007–2008 and Arab spring uprisings (2010–2012) were, in part, a consequence of price increases due to a tightening supply of staple grains, particularly wheat. Prolonged drought in Australia contributed to the global wheat shortage; Australia accounts for 10% of global wheat exports 2 . Australian wheat yields have plateaued 3 owing to reduced rainfall 4 , 5 and increasing temperatures 3 attributed to anthropogenic climate change 6 . If Australia is to increase wheat production in line with projected global population growth and demand, an increase in yield is required 7 . Crop simulations reveal that an early sowing system combined with slower-developing wheat genotypes could exploit a longer growing season 8 . We developed near-isogenic lines and tested this hypothesis in experiments across the grain belt of Australia, and extended the results using whole-farm simulations. Our proposed early sowing system can increase national yields by 0.54 (s.d. = 0.38) t ha −1 representing an additional 7.1 Mt annually under reduced rainfall and increasing temperature regimes. This adaptation could facilitate increasing yields across Australia under climate change with global food security benefits.