Lung Cancer–Related Clinical and Economic Impacts of Achieving a 5% Smoking Prevalence Rate by 2035 in Canada

Background: Smoking is responsible for nearly 85% of lung cancer cases and 30% of all cancer-related deaths. Canada has set an ambitious target to reduce tobacco use to 5% by 2035 in alignment with a world-wide tobacco endgame initiative. Aim: We project the impact of achieving a national 5% smoking prevalence rate by 2035 on population-level lung cancer outcomes and costs. Methods: OncoSim-Lung (version 2.5), led by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer with model development by Statistics Canada, is a microsimulation model that incorporates Canadian demographics, risk factors, registry data, resource utilization and other data to project clinical and economic impacts of cancer control measures. Smoking cessation parameters were modified to reduce the current average national smoking prevalence rate of 18% over time to 5% in 2035. Impacts were compared with those in a reference scenario, which maintained the current prevalence rate. Outputs of interest included lung cancer incidence, mortality, treatme...