Temporal Versus Probabilistic Approach To Survival Estimation: Physician'S Accuracy Over Time.

e19584 Background: Physicians are inaccurate in estimating survival. Both Temporal and Probabilistic approaches have been used for prediction. Serial prognostication might improve accuracy. In this study we compare these two approaches and assess whether serial prognostication improves accuracy. Methods: Physicians prognosticated survival daily for cancer patients admitted to palliative care units in two hospitals until death/discharge, using two prognostic tools: Temporal (What is the approximate survival of this patient in days?) and Probabilistic (What is the probability that this patient will be alive in 24 hrs?, 0% to 100%) (Hui et al. Oncologist 2011). Temporal prognosis was accurate if it fell within ± 33% of the actual survival. Probabilistic prognosis was accurate if the clinician selected a survival probability ≥70% and the patient survived in ≤24 hours or the clinician endorsed a survival probability ≤30% and the patient died. We compared physicians’ accuracy with each method at specific time p...