Arctic Tropospheric Ozone Trends

Observed trends in tropospheric ozone, an important air pollutant and short-lived climate forcer (SLCF), are estimated using available surface and ozonesonde profile data for 1993-2019, using a coherent methodology, and compared to modeled trends (1995-2015) from the Arctic Monitoring Assessment Program SLCF 2021 assessment. Increases in observed surface ozone at Arctic coastal sites, notably during winter, and concurrent decreasing trends in surface carbon monoxide, are generally captured by multi-model median trends. Wintertime increases are also estimated in the free troposphere at most Arctic sites, with decreases during spring months. Winter trends tend to be overestimated by the multi-model medians. Springtime surface ozone increases in northern coastal Alaska are not simulated while negative springtime trends in northern Scandinavia are not always reproduced. Possible reasons for observed changes and model performance are discussed including decreasing precursor emissions, changing ozone dry deposition, and variability in large-scale meteorology. The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the globe due to increases in carbon dioxide, and other trace constituents like ozone, also an air pollutant. However, improved understanding is needed about long-term changes or trends in Arctic tropospheric ozone. A coherent methodology is used to identify trends in surface and regular profile measurements over the last 20-30 years, and results from six chemistry-climate models. Increases in observed ozone are found at the surface and in the free troposphere during winter in the high Arctic. Paradoxically, decreases in nitrogen oxide emissions at mid-latitudes appear to be leading to increases in ozone during winter, but associated increases in Arctic tropospheric ozone tend to be overestimated in the models. Increases are also found at the surface in northern Alaska during spring but not reproduced by the models. The causes are unknown but could be related to changes in local sources or sinks of Arctic ozone or in large-scale weather patterns. Declining mid-latitude emissions, or increased dry deposition to northern forests, may explain negative surface ozone trends over northern Scandinavia in spring that are not always captured by the models. Further work is needed to understand changes in Arctic tropospheric ozone. Coherent ozone trend analysis methodology applied to multi-decade, pan-Arctic surface and ozonesonde datasets and multi-model mediansIncreasing winter Arctic tropospheric ozone overestimated by models in the free troposphere, and spring surface changes not capturedSpring (summer) decreases (increases) in observed ozone throughout the troposphere, not always simulated by models