Ten-year trajectories of health care utilization by Manitobans with MS predict nursing home entry.

BACKGROUND:Nursing home (NH) care is expensive and restrictive. Understanding trajectories to NH entry among people with multiple sclerosis (MS) could facilitate monitoring and early risk identification. We investigated 10-year trajectories of health care use in matched cohorts of people with MS who did and did not enter NH, the characteristics associated with trajectory group membership, and whether group membership predicted NH entry. METHODS:We used population-based administrative (health claims) data from Manitoba, Canada, to identify 226 NH entrants with MS between January 2005 and December 2012 and 896 age-, sex- and geographically matched non-NH entrants with MS. Using semiparametric group-based trajectory approaches, we described trajectories for 5 measures of health care utilization: physician visits, medications, hospital days and their intensity, and home care days. Using multivariable logistic models, we determined whether membership in a trajectory group predicted NH entry. RESULTS:Mean (SD) age at MS diagnosis was 48.35 (13.25) years for NH entrants and 44.91 (11.58) for nonentrants. Most patients were female (NH entrant, 64%; nonentrant, 61%). Over the study period, trajectories for physician visits and medication use were relatively stable, while trajectories for hospital days and home care increased. High use trajectories for hospital days and medication use were associated with NH entry, while higher use of ambulatory physician visits was associated with a 40%-60% lower risk of NH entry. CONCLUSION:Complex patterns of service use and underlying need contribute to NH entry among people with MS. An increasing number of hospital days is strongly associated with NH entry.