OA09.05 Potential Reduction in Lung Cancer Mortality in the US from 2015-2065: A Comparative Modeling Approach

Tobacco control efforts implemented since the 1960s in the US have led to considerable reductions in smoking and smoking-related diseases including lung cancer. It is, however, unclear to what extent tobacco use and lung cancer mortality will be further reduced during the next half century due to control efforts that have already been implemented until 2015. To address this question, we developed simulation models that explicitly relate smoking temporal patterns to future lung cancer rates. Four independent lung cancer natural history models were developed using US smoking (1964-2015) and lung cancer mortality (1969-2010) data. Each model projected lung cancer mortality by smoking status (ages 30-84) from 2015 to 2065 under a status quo scenario, in which current smoking patterns are assumed to continue into the future. Sensitivity analyses were conducted comparing optimistic and pessimistic assumptions relative to the status quo. Models validated well to observed lung cancer mortality. Under the status quo scenario, age-adjusted lung cancer mortality is projected to drop 79% from 2015 to 2065. Concomitantly, the annual number of lung cancer deaths is projected to decrease from 135,000 to 50,000 (63% reduction). Despite these decreases, 4.4 millions deaths from lung cancer are projected to occur in the US from 2015-2065. Tobacco control efforts since the 1960’s will continue to lead to reductions in lung cancer rates well into the next half century. Nonetheless, additional prevention efforts are required to sustain and expand these gains, and further reduce the lung cancer burden in the US.