Prospects in China for nuclear development up to 2050

An ambitious plan for nuclear development exists for long in China. The study of scenarios with prospect of 150 GWe to 400 GWe in 2050 is carried out using the COSI6 simulation software, and aims at analyzing the evolution of nuclear energy currently planned in China. Results rely on natural uranium supplies, fuel fabrication, spent fuel reprocessing, quantities of proliferating materials and the opportunity of a rapid deployment of fast reactors (FBR). It seems impossible for China to start two fast reactors before 2020 without any external source of plutonium. Anyway, FBR may represent at the most around 30% of the total nuclear capacity in the country by 2050. Indeed the deployment of FBR only can start from 2035 to 2040. Finally, the pace of FBR development should be controlled carefully by the proportion of FBR and PWR with respect to the reprocessing capacity. Natural uranium savings appear rather low by 2050, because the transition toward a fast reactor fleet independent from uranium ore lasts decades. However, this independence may be reached by the end of the century, before uranium resources are dwindling, if the first corners to close the fuel cycle are turned in the next decade.