Climate to fish: Synthesizing field work, data and models in a 39-year retrospective analysis of seasonal processes on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope

We combined field data and the output from a climate-to-fish coupled biophysical model to calculate weekly climatologies and 1971–2009 time series of physical and biological drivers for 16 distinct regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope. We focus on spatial trends and physical-biological interactions as a framework to compare model output to localized or season-specific observations. Data on pollock (≥8cm) diet were used to evaluate energy flows and zooplankton dynamics predicted by the model. Model validation shows good agreement to sea-ice cover albeit with a one month delay in ice retreat. Likewise, the timing of spring phytoplankton blooms in the model were delayed approximately one month in the south and extend further into summer, but the relative timing between the spring and fall bloom peaks was consistent with observations. Ice-related primary producers may shift the timing of the spring bloom maximum biomass earlier in years when sea ice was still present after mid-March in the southern regions. Including the effects of explicit, dynamic fish predation on zooplankton in the model shifts the seasonal spring peak and distribution of zooplankton later in the year relative to simulations with implicit predation dependent only on zooplankton biomass and temperature; the former capturing the dynamic demand on zooplankton prey by fish. Pollock diets based on stomach samples collected in late fall and winter from 1982–2013 show overwintering euphausiids and small pollock as key prey items in the outer and southern Bering Sea shelf; a characteristic not currently present in the model.