Death analysis and mortality prediction in children under 5 from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District, Shanghai

[Objective] By the use of GM( 1,1) model to predict mortality trends of children under 5 years,on the basis of the analysis of cause of death in children under 5 from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District of Shanghai City. [Methods] Nearly 5 years of monitoring data were used for analysis of the cause of death,and the grey model( GM) was used to fit and predict mortality. [Results] The death of children under 5 was mainly infant death and the infant death was mainly newborns death from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District. During this five-year period,children mortality under 5 fluctuated from 3. 30‰ to 4. 98‰ and was slightly increased in 2010. The main cause of death in the neonatal period was birth asphyxia,accounting for 31. 82%. For infant period,The first cause was congenital anomaly,accounting for 30. 43% and the second cause was birth asphyxia,accounting for 20. 29%. The fitting effect of GM was fine and the predicted mortality of children under 5 years was 3. 88‰ in 2013. [Conclusion] Congenital anomalies,birth asphyxia and accident death seriously threaten the lives of children under 5 years. We must strengthen neonatal screening,neonatal accidental death education,thus effectively reducing the mortality of children under 5. The fitting effect of GM( 1,1) on mortality rate of children under 5 is good and can be applied for prediction.