WALTer: a three-dimensional wheat model to study competition for light through the prediction of tillering dynamics.

Background and Aims Branching is a main morphogenetic process involved in the adaptation of plants to the environment. In grasses, tillering is divided into three phases: tiller emergence, cessation of tillering and tiller regression. Understanding and prediction of the tillering process is a major challenge to better control cereal yields. In this paper, we present and evaluate WALTer, an individual-based model of wheat built on simple self-adaptive rules for predicting the tillering dynamics at contrasting sowing densities. Methods WALTer simulates the three-dimensional (3-D) development of the aerial architecture of winter wheat. Tillering was modelled using two main hypotheses: (H1) a plant ceases to initiate new tillers when a critical Green Area Index (GAI(c)) is reached, and (H2) the regression of a tiller occurs if its interception of light is below a threshold (PAR(t)). The development of vegetative organs follows descriptive rules adapted from the literature. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of each parameter on tillering and GAI dynamics. WALTer was parameterized and evaluated using an initial dataset providing an extensive description of GAI dynamics, and another dataset describing tillering dynamics under a wide range of sowing densities. Key Results Sensitivity analysis indicated the predominant importance of GAI(c) and PAR(t). Tillering and GAI dynamics of expt 1 were well fit by WALTer. Once calibrated based on the agronomic density of expt 2, tillering parameters allowed an adequate prediction of tillering dynamics at contrasting sowing densities. Conclusions Using simple rules and a small number of parameters, WALTer efficiently simulated the wheat tillering dynamics observed at contrasting densities in experimental data. These results show that the definition of a critical GAI and a threshold of PAR is a relevant way to represent, respectively, cessation of tillering and tiller regression under competition for light.