Is HATCH score a reliable predictor of atrial fibrillation after cavotricuspid isthmus ablation for typical atrial flutter?

Objective We determined the effectiveness of the HATCH score in patients with typical atrial flutter (AFl) undergoing cavotricuspid isthmus (CTI) ablation to predict long-term atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods We conducted an observational retrospective single-center cohort study including all patients admitted to our hospital for a CTI ablation between 1998 and 2010. The patients were divided into four categories: 1) new-onset AF (no prior AF and AF during follow-up (FU)); 2) old AF (prior AF and no AF during FU); 3) prior and post AF (AF prior and post CTI ablation); and 4) no AF. Results Four hundred and eight patients were included. In patients without prior AF, the hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset AF during FU was 0.98 (CI 95%: 0.65–1.50; p=0.95) and 1.00 (CI 95%: 0.57–1.77; p=0.98) for HATCH≥2 and HATCH≥3, respectively. In patients with prior AF, the HR for AF was 1.41 (CI 95%: 0.87–2.28; p=0.17) and 1.79 (CI 95%: 0.96–3.35; p=0.06), for HATCH≥2 and HATCH≥3, respectively. Left atrial enlargement was positively correlated with the occurrence of AF during FU, especially in the subgroup without prior AF, which had a HR of 2.44 (CI 95%: 1.35–4.40; p=0.003), a HR of 2.88 (CI 95%: 1.36–6.10; p=0.006) and a HR of 3.68 (CI 95%: 1.71–7.94; p=0.001), for slight, moderate and severely dilated left atrial dimension, respectively, compared with a normal value. Conclusions HATCH score did not predict AF in patients with typical AFl who underwent CTI ablation. Basal left atrium dimension could help predict new-onset AF.