Bacterial Factors That Predict Relapse after Tuberculosis Therapy.

BACKGROUND Approximately 5% of patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis have a relapse after 6 months of first-line therapy, as do approximately 20% of patients after 4 months of short-course therapy. We postulated that by analyzing pretreatment isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis obtained from patients who subsequently had a relapse or were cured, we could determine any correlations between the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of a drug below the standard resistance breakpoint and the relapse risk after treatment. METHODS Using data from the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium Study 22 (development cohort), we assessed relapse and cure isolates to determine the MIC values of isoniazid and rifampin that were below the standard resistance breakpoint (0.1 mu g per milliliter for isoniazid and 1.0 mu g per milliliter for rifampin). We combined this analysis with clinical, radiologic, and laboratory data to generate predictive relapse models, which we validated by analyzing data from the DMID 01-009 study (validation cohort). RESULTS In the development cohort, the mean (+/- SD) MIC of isoniazid below the breakpoint was 0.0334 +/- 0.0085 mu g per milliliter in the relapse group and 0.0286 +/- 0.0092 mu g per milliliter in the cure group, which represented a higher value in the relapse group by a factor of 1.17 (P = 0.02). The corresponding MIC values of rifampin were 0.0695 +/- 0.0276 and 0.0453 +/- 0.0223 mu g per milliliter, respectively, which represented a higher value in the relapse group by a factor of 1.53 (P<0.001). Higher MIC values remained associated with relapse in a multivariable analysis that included other significant between-group differences. In an analysis of receiver-operating-characteristic curves of relapse based on these MIC values, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.779. In the development cohort, the AUC in a multivariable model that included MIC values was 0.875. In the validation cohort, the MIC values either alone or combined with other patient characteristics were also predictive of relapse, with AUC values of 0.964 and 0.929, respectively. The use of a model score for the MIC values of isoniazid and rifampin to achieve 75.0% sensitivity in cross-validation analysis predicted relapse with a specificity of 76.5% in the development cohort and a sensitivity of 70.0% and a specificity of 100% in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS In pretreatment isolates of M. tuberculosis with decrements of MIC values of isoniazid or rifampin below standard resistance breakpoints, higher MIC values were associated with a greater risk of relapse than lower MIC values.