Predictive factors of alcohol consumption in adolescents: data from 1-year follow-up prospective study.

Alcohol use/abuse is a health problem in adolescents. The last Survey on use of drugs in Secondary Schoolers carried out in Spain (ESTUDES 2014-2015), reveals that 76.8% of adolescents aged 14 to 18 years consumed alcohol in the previous year and 68.2% in the last month. The aim of this study is to determine the medium-term factors associated with alcohol consumption in a sample of Spanish adolescents. The present study was carried out as a part of the Saving and Empowering Young Lives project in Europe (SEYLE) project. The final sample was composed of 708 students, assessed at two times [basal (T-0) and one year later (T-1)] [males: 51.98%, basal mean age (SD)=4.43 (0.67)]. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed in order to investigate relationships between possible predictive variables found at time T-0 and alcohol consumption at time T-1. At basal time (T-0) the prevalence of alcohol abuse was 25.56%, whereas the prevalence one year later was 49.72% (T-1). Variables that significantly predict alcohol abuse within a year are: previous alcohol abuse at T-0 (p<0.001), previous abuse of drugs (p=0.011), parents attending their sporting events (p=0.005), peer problems (p=0.019), and lack of prosocial-behaviour (p=0.043). In the light of our results, it can be concluded that, in adolescents, externalizing disorders seem to be determining factors of medium-term alcohol consumption.